Hi,
while generating MPS, Demand is generating abnormally even though there is nil req. for that period. We are using "Exponential Smoothing" Forecast Method.

I have given Auto.update of Forecast parameters and update demand plan as "YES".

Our Current allocation is 0.00. start date for MPS generation is current date and plan period is upto 31-12-2007, with 30 days plan period.
when generate MPS it is giving the Demand Forecast in Thousnds to Lakhs nos.
Pl. suggest how to correct this

Thanks in advance

Regards,
Someshwar.

Forecast in MPS is generated based upon usage history. If you have history for your item forecast will be generated regardless of whether you have actual demand or not.

I have seen exp smoothing give weird numbers. Try moving average. It seems more reliable

I don't recommend using Baan MPS forecast, as these methods are very rudimentary. There are specailised packages (low cost) that can do forecasting very well and much easier to explain. It is also quite easy to integrate them to Baan.

Arvind Patil

partly agree with Arvind

Most of the time the reason for 'strange' forecasts is caused by little or no history. No in a way that numbers are low, but only usage in very few historic buckets.
The forecasting can only work when there is a reasonable amount of buckets with usage.
(algoritms on two or three numbers can never give reliable forecasts)

Easy workaround is a little query in which you can calculate a forecast and update mps yourself

and if that does not help, it was just fun playing with it :D

Hi,
One more drawback of Baan MPS is that it based on shipping history and not based on booking. Now, if the item is backordered, so the forecast may get affected. This is one more reason, I think Baan MPS is not preferable.


Arvind Patil